When Research Fails…

“Marketing is finding out what customers want and delivering it to them profitably.”

I am a believer in research. But only when it is used correctly. Frequently research is used not to uncover information that allows us to make an intelligent decision, but is used to rationalize a decision we have already made.

I was reading a “classic” book today; Big Brands, Big Trouble authored by Jack Trout this morning and came across the following passage:

“..because market research convinced them that there was no demand for such a gadget. Despite the well known fact that one cannot conduct market research on something not in the market, researchers went out and asked people: “Would you buy a telephone accessory that costs upwards of $1,500 and enables you to send, for $1 a page, the same letter the post office delvers for 25 cents?” The answer, predictably, came back “no”.

Think you know what this product is? Here is a clue. This telephone accessory was invented in 1843.

In my other blogs (MyCustomersAreDifferent.blogspot.com and MyEmployeesAreDifferent.blogspot.com) I cite numerous examples of research that I have conducted on consumer behavior over the years.

I use research to discover how consumers have behaved in the past. Past behavior is a key indicator of future behavior. But I have found that this only works when the behavior you are researching involves continuity. If a customer buys Coca-Cola, you can reasonably predict that they will buy Coca-Cola in the future.

The one type of research that fails most frequently is predicting the future. Especially when there is little continuity between the past behavior you observed and the future behavior you are predicting. To ask a consumer who has bought Coca-Cola in the past if they would purchase a “completely new product that has nothing to do with Coca-Cola but is a liquid product” invites disaster.

I participate on a “consumer research panel” that sends me surveys to complete. One of the large confectionary companies is about to launch a new product and they want to know how I feel about it.

“Today we would like to get your opinion (because it matters to us!) about a new exciting confection that has never been in the marketplace, no one has ever seen, it is not a candy, not a gum, not a mint, we think it is good for you, you must sign the confidentiality agreement before you can even see a picture of this product…” “Use your imagination and I sure hope our marketing department has painted an accurate description of the product we are about to describe.” “It is crisp, clean, new…”

Some of my favorite questions:

“Based on the product description, how well do you think you will like the taste?” (Have you ever seen a product described as awful tasting?)
“How large of a package of X would you be willing to buy the first time?” (My guess is the smallest one I can get away with.)
“How often do you see yourself buying and using X?” (I’m still wondering how it tastes. By the way, how much does it cost?)

To me, this is an example of research helping to justify a decision that has already been made. X is rolling out somewhere. “We simply need research to cover our ass in case the product fails, so we can blame you.”

Would you be surprised to know that in 2004, 1.5 million of these telephone accessories were sold in the United States?

I am not implying that this is useless or even bad research. I just wonder if it is necessary research.

Sometimes successful marketing means stepping out on the limb and taking a chance. No risk, no reward. Successful marketing requires intuition and risk taking. My best ideas come from flashes of inspiration that can not be researched because they are new. They are based on a combination of years of experience and my best guess. If every marketing decision you make is based on research, you will never make progress. You will plod along re-inventing the same wheel. When Henry Ford was asked about consumer research as he developed the automobile, he responded “If I ask consumers what they want, they will say a faster horse.”

Take a chance. Lead.

The telephone accessory research attempted to destroy? The Fax Machine.


All great men are gifted with intuition. They know without reasoning or analysis, what they need to know.
Alexis Carrel (1873 - 1944)